Tre punti chiave

  1. Analysis suggests a balanced position on Swedish equities and on Swedish government bonds, with yield curve observations centered on two-to-five-year maturities. The krona indicates modest fundamental undervaluation, with gradual appreciation but negative carry. The headline OMXS30 multiple is distorted by fair-value gains at two investment companies, so valuation work should use the adjusted measure.
  2. Real GDP rose 1.6% quarter on quarter in Q2 2026, with investment up 3.5% and net exports contributing 0.5 percentage points. Manufacturing and services PMIs reached 56.1 and 55.8 in August. Unemployment remained 8.7% on the seasonally adjusted and smoothed measure. The Riksbank held its policy rate at 1.75% at its 24 September decision and signalled conditional increases beginning in 2026.
  3. Swedish listed equity is worth about 1.8 times GDP, and the OMXS30 is dominated by industrials and financials whose earnings are largely earned abroad.

Sweden Strategy & Macro Outlook: Global Earnings, Domestic Resilience, and the Krona

Sweden enters the 2026–2030 horizon with a marked division between its domestic macroeconomic cycle and the earnings drivers of its listed equity market. Real GDP expanded by 1.6% quarter on quarter in Q2 2026, supported by fixed capital formation near one-quarter of GDP, research intensity above 3.5% of GDP, and a triple-A sovereign balance sheet with Maastricht debt at 35.4% of GDP. Even so, structural frictions, most notably decelerating output per worker, skill mismatches alongside 8.7% smoothed unemployment, and regional power-grid bottlenecks, mean that high national innovation inputs do not automatically translate into broad-based domestic productivity growth.

For institutional investors, this distinction is amplified by the architecture of Stockholm’s capital markets. Listed equity market capitalisation reached a record SEK 13,516bn at end-June 2026, roughly 1.8 times forecast 2026 GDP, yet around 62% of the OMXS30 index weight sits in globally exposed industrial, technology, materials, and healthcare groups whose revenues depend on international capital expenditure and currency translation rather than Swedish household demand. While compulsory pension and savings flows anchor domestic demand and primary issuance, foreign investors hold 37.7% of market value and set the marginal price across both large-cap equities and government bonds.

With the Riksbank holding its policy rate at 1.75% in September 2026 while signalling conditional increases and nominal government bond supply nearly doubling from SEK 118bn in 2025 to SEK 220bn in 2026 positioning requires separating the country thesis from index beta.

Materiali di supporto

Heuresis Capital Research_RESEARCH ID_2026.C001_Sweden_1.pdf.pdf2874 KB

Fonti, metodologia e informative

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